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title: Kazakhstan's AI Dreams
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 October 23, 2026

# Kazakhstan's AI Dreams

![Picture of Rodger Baker](https://periplo.us/hs-fs/hubfs/rodger%20baker.jpg?width=50&name=rodger%20baker.jpg) By   Rodger Baker  ·   5 minute read

BLUF:

There is growing U.S. interest in Central Asia from both a strategic and business perspective. This month, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is bringing a reported 200 business leaders to the region when he attends the C5+1 ministerial in Uzbekistan, and NVIDIA President and CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to visit Kazakhstan, where the government has announced plans for a significant data center buildout. Astana is positioning itself as an attractive location for technology investment, providing ample cheap energy, minimal NIMBY concerns, and stable government-backed funding. Its success, however, is contingent on managing its own energy expansion, U.S. waivers for chip exports, and its continued attempt to balance relations with Washington, Beijing, and Moscow.

Key Points

- Kazakhstan has bold plans to become the center of Eurasian AI data centers, backed by the Sovereign Wealth Fund "Samruk-Kazyna" Joint Stock Company.
- While ample coal in the north can power the first phase of the buildout, forecasts suggest a several year gap in available excess energy may be coming before new nuclear and other power sources come online.
- Kazakhstan has joined both U.S. and Chinese led AI initiatives, which may bring political pressure and economic constraints from both.
- A key question centers on U.S. export controls, and whether Kazakhstan can receive a general waiver, or if chip sales will be decided on a case-by-case basis.

The Eurasian Campaign

Kazakhstan occupies a central position in Eurasia,geographically and politically. It is the largest of the “Stans” and the 9th largest nation on earth by land area. Astana pursues a multi-alignment strategy, working closely with the United States, China, and Russia, as well as several other middle powers. It is energy-rich, and has long served as a transit corridor connecting the East and West, a role it continues to play, thanks in part to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure. Astana seeks to expand that connecting role to information, and has announced major initiatives to establish itself as the center of AI data centers and infrastructure. President Kassym-Jomart Kemeluly Tokayev created a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence in September 2025, elevating its minister, Zhaslan Madiyev, to deputy prime minister. The country has set an ambitious deadline - 2029 - to emerge as the regional AI center.

Toward this end, in May 2025, Astana rushed a shipment of Nvidia H200 GPUs into the country under a U.S. quota rule that Washington moved to rescind just days later. Those cards were integrated into the state’s [alem.cloud supercomputer](https://www.nitec.kz/en/proekty/national-supercomputer), which began operations in July of the same year. In October 2025, the government-controlled Kazakhtelecom launched what it called the second largest AI cluster in Central Asia, AI-Farabium. Together, they hold about 900 Nvidia H200s at about 2MW of capacity. In late 2025, U.S.-based Freedom Holding announced plans for a [$2 billion AI hub](https://ir.freedomholdingcorp.com/press-releases/detail/86/freedom-holding-corp-to-build-2b-sovereign-ai-hub-in) in Kazakhstan with Nvidia, though it is currently just a memorandum subject to financing. The most recent expansion came in June of 2026, when [Astana signed a $10 billion package with Firebird](https://primeminister.kz/en/news/data-center-valley-kazakhstan-government-firebird-and-nvidia-sign-10-billion-package-of-agreements-in-artificial-intelligence-31516), promising 100,000 GPUs and an eventual gigawatt of capacity. The first [50MW building is due in Q2 2027](https://dc-valley.com/en) as part of a multi-phase expansion plan dubbed “Data Center Valley.” Later phases are loosely scheduled for 2028-2033 and tied to confirmed client demand. Plans for the Data Center Valley amount to an initial 300MW capacity, with a full buildout of a GW of capacity.

![](https://periplo.us/hs-fs/hubfs/undefined-Oct-23-2026-07-51-22-0151-PM.png?width=1575&height=887&name=undefined-Oct-23-2026-07-51-22-0151-PM.png)

*Imagery © 2026 Airbus, Map data © 2026 Google*

Construction at the Data Center Valley site, west of the Ekibastuz GRES-1 coal power plant.

Washington’s Chip Question

Kazak’s data center goals are contingent on U.S. export licensing, something complicated by the country’s non-alignment policy. Kazakhstan is part of the Russian-centered Customs Union of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and risk of diversion makes it a high-priority target of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). Astana is also unique in joining both China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) and the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative. Washington has hinted that it will make Kazakhstan pick a side, something the leadership is currently avoiding. Currently, it appears GPU chip sales into Kazakhstan are case-dependent, based on individual company investments. Firebird has apparently received such a waiver, following a waiver for its similar investment in [Armenia, Firebird’s first market](https://periplo.us/periplous-llc-blog/armenia-geopolitical-challenges), where it reportedly recently [secured approval for 41,000 GB300s](https://www.firebird.ai/news-phase2.html) as part of a second-phase buildout.

Moscow’s Infrastructure and Beijing’s Turbines

The political hurdles are matched by lingering uncertainty over power availability. Ekibastuz was chosen as the Data Valley site due to its coal reserves. However, even with large reserves, Kazakhstan ran an electricity deficit in 2025 and covered its winter peak with wireline imports, primarily from Russia. Official state [forecasts show](https://www.gov.kz/uploads/2026/1/16/94912e79817484460f6d79b5ec7a4647_original.465169.pdf) an estimated 1,300-4,000 GWH of surplus energy available to fuel a major data center expansion, assuming all production is working and there are no interruptions or excess demand, at least until new planned power projects begin coming online in between 2029 and 2032. (The other Russian challenge centers on telecommunication routes: roughly 95% of Kazakhstan's international internet traffic currently transits Russia. The [Trans-Caspian cable to Azerbaijan](https://www.submarinenetworks.com/en/systems/intra-asia/trans-caspian), due to launch this month, will add an alternative route.)

[Delays and the cost of Russian turbines](https://www1.ru/news/2026/03/10/kazaxstan-predpocel-rossiiskim-turbinam-kitaiskie-i-sekonomil-250-mlrd-tenge.html) and power infrastructure development have seen Kazakhstan turn to China to accelerate its electricity build out for its future data center demands. Kazakhstan is also buying [Chinese turbines](https://www.seetaoe.com/details/276923.html) for other energy projects. Astana continues to work with Russia’s Rosatom for [Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-signs-agreement-build-nuclear-power-plant-kazakhstan-2026-05-28/), due in the mid-2030s. But the country is also looking to South Korea for potential additional investment and nuclear power cooperation. Most of this new capacity doesn't come online until 2029 onwards, but some assessments still see a mismatch between available energy supplies and new demands based on the data center plans. It will be important to watch power production plans, cross border electricity agreements, and strengthening of the overall electricity grid to determine if these will be a temporary drag on the pace of data center build, or a structural constraint.

![](https://periplo.us/hs-fs/hubfs/undefined-Oct-23-2026-07-51-23-3264-PM.png?width=2048&height=1174&name=undefined-Oct-23-2026-07-51-23-3264-PM.png)

Financeability and Domestic Politics

In Astana, the AI push has strong political and institutional backing. Tokayev appears secure following the implementation of a new constitution and the Constitutional Court ruling that [Tokayev’s previous terms are reset](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstans-top-court-says-president-can-seek-another-term-2026-07-07/), allowing him to run in future elections. Prime Minister Oljas Bektenov and Deputy PM Madiyev retained their posts after the August elections. The government passed a new AI Law and Digital Code in January to define the framework for building out capabilities and infrastructure, and Samruk-Kazyna [raised its stake in Kazakhtelecom](https://sk.kz/press-center/news/79034/?lang=en) to about 90% this year.

Core to the initiative is the state sovereign wealth fund. Kazakhtelecom plans to borrow several billion dollars for planned projects, and is awaiting more concrete commitments (and action) from Freedom Holdings and Firebird. Samruk-Kazyna’s resources are in part dependent on overall energy prices, and the ability of Kazakhstan to expand its oil exports abroad. The ongoing war in Ukraine presents a potential risk (we have already seen drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium), and the political and security stability in the Caucasus remains somewhat uncertain.

Final Thoughts

[The Secretary of State’s Central Asia trip](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/10/secretary-rubios-travel-to-samarkand-mumbai-and-jamnagar), and [Jensen Huang’s visit to Kazakhstan](https://astanatimes.com/2026/09/kazakhstan-strengthens-global-ai-ties-as-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-plans-visit-for-ai-month-event/) will show whether Washington (and Nvidia) intend to back Astana’s ambitions by easing restrictions on access to GBUs and AI cards. Astana has highlighted its strengths - relatively cheap and ample energy supplies (though there are short-term risks before new projects come online), strong government support with minimal viable community pushback, and a sovereign wealth fund ready to invest. On the surface, this appears to mirror similar strengths offered by the Gulf state and the Nordic states in their drive for AI infrastructure expansion. For Kazakhstan, US relations are key for the GBUs, but China and Russia are critical for the future energy build out, and for reducing the likelihood of political interference or instability.

Additional author contributions from Ethan Burk

AI Disclosure: Claude (Anthropic) was used to help research sections of this article. All facts, interpretations, and final edits were verified and approved by the human author

 

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